Implied Odds Calculator
Convert American odds to implied probability, decimal, fractional, and break-even win rate. The dashboard cross-references against the ThunderBet ML model.
Negative for favorites, positive for underdogs.
Beat the break-even rate over time and you're profitable. Below it, the vig is eating your bankroll.
Implied probability is the floor. AI gives you the ceiling.
The book tells you what win rate it is pricing in. The AI tells you whether that price is too low.
ML model overlay
The dashboard runs every matchup through a sport-specific ML model and shows the model probability next to the implied probability. Bets where the model probability beats implied by 2%+ get auto-flagged.
Sharp consensus probability
Beyond the model, the AI averages no-vig probabilities from Pinnacle and Circa to produce a sharp-consensus number. When the implied probability at a public book is materially below sharp consensus, the line is soft.
Probability movement chart
Watch how implied probability shifts as money comes in. The dashboard plots the probability time-series and overlays where sharp action moved the line.
Break-even tracker
Bet at -200? You need to win 66.7% to break even. The dashboard tracks your actual hit rate against your average implied probability and tells you whether you are beating the prices you are taking.
Frequently asked questions
Implied probability is the win rate the book is offering on a line. A -110 favorite has 52.4% implied probability. If your true win rate is higher than the implied probability, the bet is +EV.
For positive American odds: implied = 100 / (american + 100). For negative American odds: implied = -american / (-american + 100). Multiply by 100 for a percentage.
Break-even win rate is the percentage of bets you need to win at a given price to break even. It is identical to implied probability. Beat it long-run and you are profitable; fall short and the vig drains your bankroll.
The dashboard takes the implied probability and overlays it with the ThunderBet ML model output for the same matchup. When the model probability is meaningfully higher than the implied, the dashboard flags the bet as +EV.
Because the book builds in margin (vig). Two -110 lines have a combined implied probability of 104.55%. The 4.55% over 100% is the book edge. Use the No-Vig Calculator to strip it.
From a probability to a position
The dashboard layers ML probability and sharp-consensus probability on top of the book line, so you always know which prices are soft.