EV / Edge Calculator
Quantify the gap between the fair price and the book. EV in dollars, ROI as a percent, edge against the close. Find the bets actually worth taking.
Your model price, or the no-vig consensus from sharp books.
Edges decay. AI sizes them honestly.
A 4% edge that fades to 0% by tip-off is worth less than a 2% edge that holds. The dashboard models both.
Edge persistence model
Every +EV line gets an AI-predicted persistence score, the probability that the edge survives until game start. Edges with low persistence get a smaller recommended stake.
Closing-line value tracker
The dashboard records the closing line for every bet you place and reports your CLV beat-rate. CLV is the strongest long-run signal of bettor skill, and the AI surfaces it weekly.
Edge tier filtering
Filter +EV bets by tier: A (5%+), B (3 to 5%), C (2 to 3%). Only A-tier hits are auto-flagged for full Kelly. The AI tunes the tiers per sport.
Auto-pull from live odds
Stop typing odds. In the dashboard, click any line in the Edge Finder and the EV calculator pre-fills with the live book price and AI fair value. One-click +EV.
Frequently asked questions
EV is the average dollar return per bet if you placed the same bet thousands of times. Positive EV means you expect to profit long-run; negative EV means you expect to lose. The formula is win_prob * profit minus lose_prob * stake.
Most pros target 2% edge or higher after the vig. Below 2%, transaction friction (bet limits, market move, withdrawal fees) often eats the edge. The dashboard surfaces only +2% bets by default.
Edges shrink as a market matures. The AI tracks the rate of decay for each line and predicts the probability that the edge will still exist at game time. A fast-decaying edge gets sized smaller.
Break-even probability is the win rate you need to be neutral on the bet. At -110, you need to win 52.4% of the time to break even. Below that, the bet is -EV; above it, +EV.
The fair price can come from your own model, the no-vig consensus from sharp books, or a third-party prediction market. The dashboard auto-fills it from the AI sharp-book consensus by default.
From a number to a bet you took
The dashboard pipes 50+ books into the EV calculator continuously. The +EV opportunities come to you, not the other way around.