Tottenham Hotspur vs Fulham Odds, Picks & Predictions — Sunday, March 01, 2026

1) The hook: Fulham get Spurs at the exact wrong (or right) time

This is the kind of Sunday EPL spot where the table position matters less than the vibe around each club. Tottenham show up to Craven Cottage carrying a nine-game losing streak, a winless 2026 league calendar, and a new manager trying to stop the bleeding. Fulham, meanwhile, aren’t exactly flying—2-3 in their last five—but they’re at least alternating between “competent” and “painful” instead of living in full crisis mode.

And the market is doing that thing it always does with big badges: it keeps Tottenham’s number respectable even when the performances aren’t. You’re seeing Fulham priced in the low-{odds:2.XX} range across books (more on that in a minute), while Spurs still sit around {odds:3.00}-{odds:3.20} like they’re just one tweak away from being fine. That’s what makes this matchup interesting for you as a bettor: you’re not handicapping “Fulham vs Tottenham,” you’re handicapping “Fulham’s steadiness at home vs Tottenham’s identity crisis plus the public’s willingness to forgive the shirt.”

If you’re looking up “Tottenham Hotspur vs Fulham odds” or “Fulham Tottenham Hotspur betting odds today,” this is the key: the price is telling you it’s competitive, but the recent form (and the exchange data) is telling you it hasn’t been competitive for Spurs in weeks.

2) Matchup breakdown: form, ELO, and why the total matters

Start with the macro numbers. Fulham’s ELO sits at 1500 vs Tottenham’s 1455. That’s not a massive gulf, but it’s meaningful when you combine it with current trajectories: Fulham are 4W-6L over their last 10, Spurs are 1W-9L. Even if you’re an “ELO is noisy” person, it’s at least pointing the same direction as your eyes.

Then the scoring profile: Fulham games have been open lately—1.6 scored, 1.7 allowed on average—while Spurs are at 1.1 scored and 1.8 allowed. That’s a blunt way of saying Tottenham are conceding like a mid-table mess and not creating enough to offset it. The 4-1 Arsenal loss wasn’t a one-off; it was the loudest version of a theme.

What’s sneaky here is tempo and game state. Fulham don’t need to dominate the ball to hurt you; they’re comfortable letting a match breathe and then finding moments. Tottenham, under a new manager, may want to simplify—more structure, fewer risks—but they’ve also been giving up goals in clusters. That’s why the total is a live conversation, not an afterthought. The market is sitting on 2.5, and if you’ve watched Spurs defend transitions lately, you understand why overs keep getting dragged into the discussion even when Spurs’ attack looks blunt.

Also, don’t ignore psychology: Fulham have a one-game win streak and just grabbed a 3-1 away win at Sunderland, while Spurs are coming off a run of losses plus two draws (including 2-2 vs City and 2-2 vs Burnley). Draws can be “stabilizing,” but they can also be the classic false dawn when the underlying issues remain—especially away from home.

3) Betting market analysis: odds, books, and what the exchanges are really saying

Let’s talk prices. On the 1X2, Fulham are generally in the {odds:2.15} to {odds:2.34} range (FanDuel {odds:2.15}, DraftKings {odds:2.25}, BetRivers {odds:2.30}, Bovada {odds:2.34}, Pinnacle {odds:2.25}). Tottenham are mostly {odds:3.00} to {odds:3.20} (DraftKings {odds:3.00}, BetRivers {odds:3.00}, Bovada {odds:3.00}, BetMGM {odds:3.10}, Pinnacle {odds:3.20}, FanDuel {odds:3.20}). The draw sits around {odds:3.40}-{odds:3.55} (Pinnacle {odds:3.55} is the standout).

On the Asian handicap, you’ve got Fulham -0.25 showing at Bovada {odds:2.02} and Pinnacle {odds:1.95}, with Tottenham +0.25 at Bovada {odds:1.82} and Pinnacle {odds:1.93}. That split is telling: the market is basically pricing Fulham as the slightly more likely winner, but it’s still respecting the draw probability enough to make the quarter-goal line the “clean” battleground.

Totals: over 2.5 is floating between {odds:1.79} (BetRivers) and {odds:2.04} (Pinnacle), with Bovada at {odds:2.02} and BetMGM {odds:1.95}. When you see that kind of spread across books on a key number like 2.5, it’s a sign the market isn’t fully aligned on how “open” this match will be.

Now the part most bettors skip: exchanges. ThunderBet’s ThunderCloud exchange consensus has the home side as the consensus moneyline winner (low confidence) with implied win probabilities Home 58.4% / Away 41.6%. More importantly, it’s flagging an edge of 12.4% on the home moneyline versus what many sportsbooks are hanging. That’s not a guarantee of anything—exchanges can be thin at times—but it’s a meaningful signal that the sharper, price-sensitive side of the market is leaning Fulham at current numbers.

And even though “no significant movements detected” is the official read, don’t confuse that with “no information.” Sometimes the story is that books are holding their ground while the exchange side shades one direction. That’s when you want to check divergence and trap signals, because the trap isn’t always a big steam move; sometimes it’s the market begging you to take the popular logo at a fair-looking price.

That’s exactly what ThunderBet’s Trap Detector is hinting at here. It flagged medium trap alerts tied to Tottenham pricing: one on Spurs +0.2 and another on Spurs moneyline, both tagged with “Fade” actions. Translation in bettor terms: some sharper sources are dealing Spurs at a worse price than softer books, which often means the “easy click” (Tottenham because they’re Tottenham) is the side you want to be careful with.

4) Value angles: where ThunderBet’s numbers line up (and where they don’t)

Here’s how I’d frame the value conversation if you’re trying to bet this without guessing: you want agreement between (1) the exchange consensus, (2) sportsbook price dispersion, and (3) our internal models.

On this match, you’re getting that alignment more on Fulham than Tottenham. ThunderCloud has the consensus spread at -0.7 with a total of 2.5 and a lean over. Our model predicted total is 3.2, which is a pretty loud statement when the market is anchored at 2.5. It doesn’t mean “auto-bet over,” but it does mean you should treat any 2.5 over price as something to shop aggressively rather than accepting the first number you see.

And the best part: you don’t have to manually hunt the best prices. Our EV Finder is already flagging +3.6% expected value on Fulham on the spread at BetOnline.ag and LowVig.ag. That’s the kind of edge that doesn’t show up because you’re a genius at reading vibes; it shows up because you’re beating the market by grabbing a better number than the consensus fair price.

There’s also a smaller but interesting exchange-related angle: “Unknown (h2h_lay)” at Smarkets showing +3.1% EV. In plain English, that’s pointing you toward a lay position on one of the 1X2 outcomes (often the away side or the draw, depending on market structure). If you’re comfortable with exchange mechanics, these are the spots where you can sometimes express a view (like “Spurs aren’t it right now”) without paying the same tax you pay at a traditional book.

One more thing: our AI-driven read on the match grades the overall value as “Strong” with an AI confidence of 78/100 and a lean home. That’s not a pick—it’s a signal that multiple inputs (form, team strength, market pricing, and exchange data) are pointing in a similar direction. If you want the full reasoning tree—how injuries shift the fair price, how the draw probability is being treated, and how sensitive the total is to early goals—ask the AI Betting Assistant to run a full breakdown and compare 1X2 vs -0.25 vs draw-no-bet structures for your bankroll preferences.

If you’re serious about turning these signals into repeatable decisions, this is also where the full dashboard matters. The public page gives you the headline; Subscribe to ThunderBet unlocks the full picture—book-by-book deltas, deeper convergence signals, and the kind of historical context that tells you whether a 12.4% exchange edge is rare, routine, or screaming.

5) Key factors to watch before you bet (and what could flip the script)

The “new manager bounce” question. Tottenham are transitioning under Igor Tudor, and that can cut both ways. Sometimes you get instant defensive buy-in; sometimes you get two weeks of confusion and players thinking instead of reacting. The contrarian angle is real: if Spurs get even a modest bounce, the {odds:3.00}+ prices start to look tempting to casual bettors. You don’t have to fade it blindly—you just need to price it correctly.

Team news matters more than usual for Spurs. The creative hub being out (and any uncertainty around key starters’ fitness) changes Tottenham’s ceiling dramatically. If you see credible confirmation that important defenders/width providers are back in the XI, that can tighten the match and pull the total down in real terms, even if the number stays 2.5. Don’t guess—wait for lineups if you can, especially if you’re betting totals.

Fulham’s home competence vs Spurs’ road fragility. Fulham’s recent results aren’t pristine, but they’ve shown they can win the games they “should” at home (Brighton 2-1) and they’re not getting priced like a dominant side. Tottenham’s away profile has been brutal, and even their “good” results lately were draws where they still conceded twice.

Public bias is quietly leaning away. ThunderBet has public bias at 4/10 toward the away side—so it’s not a stampede of Spurs money, but it’s enough that books won’t be scared to deal Tottenham at an attractive-looking number. That’s how you end up with traps: a brand name at a fair price that isn’t actually fair once you account for current performance.

Watch for late movement even if the week was quiet. “No significant movements detected” doesn’t mean Sunday won’t move. EPL markets can sit still until lineup leaks and then snap into place. If you want to catch that in real time, keep the Odds Drop Detector open—especially on the total and the -0.25/+0.25 split, where a small price change can be the difference between value and dead number.

How you structure the bet matters. If you like Fulham but respect the draw, the -0.25 discussion is real. If you think goals are coming but don’t want to fight the 2.5 key number, price-shopping is everything because {odds:1.79} vs {odds:2.04} is not a rounding error over a season. This is also a match where some bettors will prefer “wait-and-see” live betting—if Tottenham start cautiously and Fulham look comfortable, you can sometimes get a better in-game entry than pre-kick.

One last nudge: if you’re building a weekend card, don’t treat this like an isolated bet. Use ThunderBet to compare your positions across leagues and books—value tends to cluster, and the best bettors I know are always shopping the whole portfolio, not just tonight’s headline match. If you want those portfolio-level views, Subscribe to ThunderBet and you’ll see where the market is consistently mispricing teams like this Spurs side right now.

As always, bet within your means and treat every wager as a probability play, not a promise.