Seattle Redhawks vs Loyola Marymount Lions Odds, Picks & Predictions — Sunday, March 01, 2026

A late-night West Coast test: LMU’s home surge vs Seattle’s defense-first profile

This is the kind of 2:00 AM ET college hoops game that looks sleepy until you actually price it out. Loyola Marymount is riding a two-game win streak and just stole a one-point win over Washington State, while Seattle’s profile is the one bettors hate fading: lower-scoring, defense-leaning, and perfectly comfortable turning a game into a half-court grind.

What makes this matchup interesting isn’t just “two mid-majors on a Sunday.” It’s the tension between form and fundamentals. LMU’s last five are 3-2 with two convincing wins over San Diego and a high-variance one-point result vs Wazzu. Seattle’s last five are also 3-2, but their identity is clearer: 68.6 points allowed per game on the season, and they’ve already shown they can win ugly (60-50 vs Oregon State) and compete with structure (70-72 vs Saint Mary’s).

And then you look at the market and it basically shrugs. Some books deal LMU as a small favorite, others flip Seattle to the favorite. That’s exactly where you can get paid—when the books aren’t in sync and the exchanges have a different story.

If you’re searching “Seattle Redhawks vs Loyola Marymount Lions odds” or “Loyola Marymount Lions Seattle Redhawks spread,” this is the snapshot: the spread is floating around LMU -1 to -1.5 depending on the shop, and the total is clustered around 137.5–138.5.

Matchup breakdown: ELO edge Seattle, but LMU’s scoring volatility can swing the number

On paper, Seattle is the cleaner team. They own the higher ELO (1532 vs 1478), and their season-long scoring margin profile is sturdier: 70.0 scored, 68.6 allowed. That’s a team that can survive cold stretches because they don’t bleed points. LMU, meanwhile, is basically break-even on the year (72.8 scored, 72.9 allowed), which is why their outcomes swing from “83-63” to “59-65” to “89-90.”

Here’s the key betting angle: LMU’s offense can create totals inflation when they get into rhythm, but their defense hasn’t consistently earned the right to be favored. Seattle’s defense gives you a natural counterweight—if they dictate pace and shot quality, LMU’s scoring runs get shorter and the game becomes a possession-by-possession spread battle.

Recent form matters, but you’ve got to price it correctly. LMU is 4-6 in their last 10 even with that current 2-game streak. Seattle is 5-5 in their last 10, and their losses aren’t the kind that scream “collapse”—they dropped a tight one to Saint Mary’s and took a road loss to Santa Clara. That’s not the same as getting run off the floor.

Stylistically, I’m watching two things:

• Can LMU win the “shot-making contest” without turning it into a track meet? Their best results lately came when they scored efficiently and didn’t have to defend 75+ possessions.
• Can Seattle keep this in their preferred scoring band? If Seattle can keep LMU in the low 60s/upper 60s, every point on a short spread becomes magnified.

ThunderBet’s internal numbers lean into that same conflict: the exchange-derived model output (more on that below) is comfortable giving LMU the edge on the spread, but the total projection is notably higher than the market. That’s the “interesting” part—spread and total signals aren’t perfectly aligned, which is where bettors can find mispricing rather than just picking a side.

Betting market analysis: books disagree on the favorite, exchanges lean LMU (barely), and the total is the real argument

Let’s talk prices and what they actually imply.

On the moneyline, you can find LMU anywhere from {odds:1.79} (BetRivers) to {odds:1.91} (BetMGM), while Seattle sits around {odds:2.00} (FanDuel) to {odds:2.02} (BetRivers). That’s a meaningful gap for a game lined around a point. When a favorite’s price is bouncing that much, it’s usually because the market isn’t sure whether the “true” spread is closer to pick’em or closer to -3.

And the spread market shows that exact confusion:

• BetRivers/FanDuel deal LMU -1.5 with typical pricing (LMU -1.5 {odds:1.89} at BetRivers; {odds:1.95} at FanDuel).
• DraftKings is hanging LMU -1.5 at a bigger payout ({odds:2.02}), which is basically them saying “fine, take it.”
• BetMGM is the outlier: they’ve effectively flipped the game with Seattle -1.5 priced at {odds:2.05} and LMU +1.5 at {odds:1.80}.
• Pinnacle/Bovada are tighter at LMU -1 / Seattle +1 both {odds:1.91}, which often reads like a more “efficient” midpoint.

Now layer in ThunderBet’s exchange aggregation (ThunderCloud). The exchange consensus has the home side as the most likely moneyline winner, but it’s tagged low confidence with win probabilities around 52.6% / 47.4%. That aligns with a near pick’em game—exactly what the spread is telling you.

The bigger disagreement is the total. Exchange consensus total is 138.5 with a slight lean over, but ThunderBet’s model predicted total is 141.7. That’s not a tiny difference. When your model is 3+ points off market, you don’t blindly hammer anything—but you do stop and ask: is the market pricing a Seattle pace-down game that might not actually happen if LMU hits shots at home?

Line movement is worth monitoring here because it hasn’t been one-way steam; it’s been more like a slow drift and price reshuffling. The Odds Drop Detector tracked LMU spread pricing drifting from {odds:1.96} to {odds:2.04} at Kalshi and {odds:1.85} to {odds:1.91} at 888sport. That kind of drift usually means the market is less eager to pay a premium for LMU points—either because Seattle money showed up, or because books want to encourage LMU action at a better payout.

On totals, we saw both sides drift: Under pricing moved from {odds:1.85} to {odds:1.90} (888sport) and Over from {odds:1.83} to {odds:1.87} (Fliff). That’s not a clean “sharp over” or “sharp under” story—it’s more like the market is still negotiating the right number.

Trap-wise, ThunderBet’s Trap Detector flagged a split-line (low) situation on Under 137.0 with a low score (28/100) and a “Pass” recommendation. Translation: there’s some sharp/soft divergence, but it’s not strong enough to treat as a reliable signal. In a game where your model total is higher than market, that “pass” matters—you don’t want to force an Under angle just because the number looks modest.

Value angles: where ThunderBet is finding edges (and what those edges actually mean)

When you’re shopping “Seattle Redhawks vs Loyola Marymount Lions picks predictions,” this is the part that separates a vibe from a bet: price quality. Two bettors can like the same side and one of them is still making a bad bet because they grabbed the worst number.

ThunderBet’s EV Finder is flagging a few small but real pricing inefficiencies right now:

• LMU spread at Kalshi shows an estimated +4.2% EV (that’s meaningful in college hoops, where a lot of “edges” are basically noise).
• LMU moneyline at BetMGM is tagged around +2.7% EV at {odds:1.91}, which stands out because other books are dealing LMU shorter (like {odds:1.79} at BetRivers).
• LMU moneyline at Ladbrokes is also popping with a smaller edge (+2.1%).

Here’s how to interpret that without overreacting: +EV doesn’t mean “LMU wins.” It means given the market-wide consensus price, that specific shop is offering you a number that’s a little too generous. If you’re going to play LMU at all, you’d rather do it at {odds:1.91} than {odds:1.79}. That’s not a hot take—that’s bankroll math.

Also, notice what’s not on the +EV list: Seattle. That doesn’t mean Seattle is a bad side; it means their current prices aren’t beating the broader market enough to show positive expectation. If you’re a Seattle backer, your job is to wait for the right number (spread or ML) instead of paying tax.

The other ThunderBet signal I’m watching is convergence. When the exchange consensus, sharper books, and our internal ensemble agree, you usually get a cleaner “this is mispriced” story. Here, it’s mixed: exchanges slightly favor LMU, but book spreads are scattered and the total projection is higher than market. That’s often a sign the best value is price shopping rather than trying to outsmart the matchup.

If you want the full model context—like how many of our ensemble components are aligned on side vs total, and a confidence grade—this is where you’ll want to Subscribe to ThunderBet. The free view gives you the edges; the dashboard shows you why they’re there and whether the agreement is broad or fragile.

Key factors to watch before you bet: number sensitivity, tempo control, and the “late move” risk

This is a one- to two-possession spread game in most places. That means you should treat 1 point like it matters—because it does. LMU -1 is not the same bet as LMU -1.5 at the wrong price, and Seattle +1.5 is not the same as Seattle +1. If you’re playing spreads, shop it like a pro.

A few practical things to monitor leading up to tip:

• Where Pinnacle moves. Pinnacle sitting at LMU -1 with both sides {odds:1.91} is a clean reference point. If that number snaps to -1.5 or back to pick’em, it’s information.
• Whether the total ticks up from 137.5/138.5. With ThunderBet’s model total at 141.7, an early market lift could confirm that the “Seattle drags it down” narrative is overbaked.
• Public bias toward the “better defense.” Seattle’s 68.6 allowed pops on a matchup card, and that can pull casual money toward Seattle +points and Under. If you see the Under getting bet but the number won’t drop, that’s a tell.
• Schedule and motivation. Both teams are hovering around .500-ish recent form (LMU 4-6 last 10, Seattle 5-5), so urgency tends to show up in rotations and effort possessions—especially on the road. Late-night games can also exaggerate variance: long stretches with no scoring, then sudden runs.

And yes, keep an eye on last-minute availability news. College hoops lines can move fast on one player’s status, especially in a game this tight. If you want to sanity-check a bet in real time—like “is this move real or just one book reacting?”—ask the AI Betting Assistant and it’ll walk you through the latest prices, implied probabilities, and how they compare to the exchange baseline.

How I’d approach it: shop the number, respect the market split, and let the price tell you what to do

If you came here for “Loyola Marymount Lions Seattle Redhawks betting odds today,” the actionable takeaway is simple: this market is fragmented enough that where you bet matters as much as what you bet.

LMU is being priced like anything from a modest favorite to basically a coin flip depending on the book. Seattle is being respected in the spread but not consistently rewarded in the moneyline. Exchanges lean home, but not aggressively. Totals are sitting in the high 130s while the model sees a path to the low 140s. That’s not a “slam dunk” situation—it’s a “be precise” situation.

Use the tools the right way: let the EV Finder guide your price shopping, let the Odds Drop Detector confirm whether you’re chasing a move, and treat the Trap Detector as a warning label, not a commandment. If you want the full convergence read—how the ensemble, exchanges, and sharp books line up—Subscribe to ThunderBet and you’ll see the whole board instead of one snapshot.

As always, bet within your means and treat every wager like a decision, not a destiny.