Providence Friars vs Creighton Bluejays Odds, Picks & Predictions — Saturday, February 28, 2026

A late-night Big East spot where the “home bounce-back” narrative gets stress-tested

This is the kind of Saturday night Big East game that looks straightforward on the surface—Creighton at home, ranked brand name, “they can’t keep losing like this”—and then you remember DePaul just swept them and one of those losses was in Omaha. That’s the hook here: Creighton is sitting on a 3–7 skid over the last 10 with a fresh home loss to DePaul (71–72), while Providence is quietly stacking momentum with two straight wins and the confidence of already taking the first meeting (91–88 in January).

The betting market usually prices Creighton like a stable home favorite. The problem is they haven’t played stable basketball lately: last five is 1–4, and their “get-right” spot turned into another gut punch. Meanwhile Providence is playing the kind of high-variance, offense-first ball that can make any short spread uncomfortable if they’re hitting shots early.

So when you see this number living in that Creighton -2.5 to -3.5 neighborhood, you’re not really betting “who’s better.” You’re betting whether the market is overrating a home correction and undervaluing the team that’s already proven it can score with them. That’s the tension, and it’s why this matchup is interesting at 10:30 PM ET—public recency bias is pulling in two directions at once.

Matchup breakdown: Providence’s pace and shot-making vs Creighton’s thinning rotation

Start with the profiles. Creighton’s season-long scoring/allowing is basically dead even (75.5 scored, 75.5 allowed), which is usually a sign of a team that lives on execution and half-court consistency. Providence is the opposite: 86.6 scored and 84.7 allowed—track-meet tendencies, loose possessions, and a willingness to win ugly if the game turns into a shot-making contest.

On paper, the ELOs say “this is close”: Providence 1512, Creighton 1495. That’s not a huge gap, but it matters because the market is still shading the home side as if Creighton’s baseline is meaningfully higher. If you’ve watched the last couple weeks, you’ve seen why that assumption is getting pricey: Creighton’s depth has taken a hit with Jackson McAndrew out for the season, and that shows up late in games—less flexibility with matchups, fewer fresh legs to close defensive possessions, and more reliance on the same core to create good shots.

Providence’s biggest swing factor is guard play, and right now that’s a real lever. Jason Edwards (17.6 PPG) is fully healthy after the mid-season foot issue, and when he’s right, Providence can get into their offense faster and generate clean looks before the defense is set. Pair that with Jaylin Sellers and you get a backcourt that can punish any coverage that’s a half-step late. That matters against a Creighton team that just gave up 72 to DePaul twice—DePaul isn’t exactly the league’s offensive benchmark.

The first meeting (Providence 91, Creighton 88) tells you the ceiling outcome if this game opens up. You don’t need the exact same script for Providence to cover a short number—you just need the Friars to keep the pace uncomfortable and force Creighton to win with execution for 40 minutes, not 28. In this spot, Providence’s “messy” style can actually be an edge because it increases possession variance and makes small spreads feel bigger.

• Creighton’s recent form: last 10 is 3–7 with a two-game losing streak; the floor has been lower than the market typically prices.
• Providence’s current direction: two straight wins and already proved they can score on Creighton.
• Style clash: if Providence dictates tempo, the total and the dog spread both get more interesting; if Creighton slows it down, their efficiency has to hold up for a full game with less rotation depth.

Providence Friars vs Creighton Bluejays odds: what the market is saying (and what it’s not)

If you’re searching “Providence Friars vs Creighton Bluejays odds” or “Creighton Bluejays Providence Friars spread,” here’s the snapshot: books are mostly living around Creighton -2.5/-3 with a total around 166.5–167. Moneyline pricing varies enough to matter.

Moneyline-wise, Creighton is as short as {odds:1.59} (FanDuel) and as high as {odds:1.69} (BetMGM), while Providence ranges from {odds:2.18} (BetMGM) out to {odds:2.40} (FanDuel). That’s not just noise—those gaps are big enough that if you’re playing moneyline or building hedges, you should be shopping. ThunderBet’s whole edge is that we track 82+ books, and this is exactly the kind of game where a few cents of price is the difference between “fine” and “worth it.”

On the spread, you’re seeing Creighton -2.5 priced anywhere from {odds:1.83} (FanDuel) to {odds:1.91} (BetMGM/Bovada), with BetRivers hanging -3.5 at {odds:1.91}. Pinnacle is sitting at -3 with {odds:1.87} on Creighton and {odds:1.95} on Providence. That -3 at Pinnacle is a useful reference point because it often reflects sharper shaping of the number; when the rest of the market is -2.5, you should ask whether -3 is “true” or whether Pinnacle is simply charging a little extra to take the dog.

The total is posted 166.5 at several books (prices around {odds:1.88} to {odds:1.91}), and 167 at others (Pinnacle over {odds:1.94}, both sides {odds:1.91} at Bovada). Here’s where it gets interesting: ThunderCloud exchange consensus is calling the total 167.0 with a lean over… but our model’s predicted total is 157.8. That’s a massive gap in college hoops terms.

When you see that kind of split—market consensus up near 167 while model math sits in the high 150s—the right question isn’t “auto-bet the under.” It’s “what’s driving the market number?” Is it the memory of that 91–88 game? Providence’s season-long 86.6 PPG? A perception that Creighton’s defense is slipping? All plausible. But if your numbers are saying the median game is 8–10 points lower, you’re looking at a potential misprice if pace or shooting regresses even slightly.

And yes, there are some movement signals worth noting. The Odds Drop Detector tracked Providence drift on multiple fronts: their spread price moved from 1.88 to 2.07 (+10.1%) at ProphetX, and their moneyline drifted from 2.08 to 2.28 (+9.6%) at a couple of places. Drift like that often means the market is demanding a better price to hold Providence risk—either money is coming for Creighton, or books are shading against the side they expect public to like later.

One more layer: ThunderCloud exchange consensus has the home side as the ML winner, but it’s tagged low confidence with home win probability 57.8% vs away 42.2%. That’s not a screaming endorsement of Creighton; it’s more like “home is slightly more likely” while the spread consensus sits at -2.9—basically right where the sharpest numbers are clustering.

Value angles: where ThunderBet’s models disagree with the crowd (and why that matters)

This is where ThunderBet’s proprietary read gets fun, because the signals aren’t all pointing the same direction—and that’s usually when you can find price-based value if you’re disciplined.

1) Spread vs model: Our model predicted spread is Providence +0.2. The market is giving you Providence +2.5 to +3.5 depending on the shop. That’s a meaningful gap. It doesn’t mean Providence “will” win—college hoops doesn’t work like that—but it does mean the number is asking Creighton to be better than our median expectation by a couple points on a neutral baseline before you even add in variance.

2) Moneyline price shopping: If you’re playing Providence ML, the difference between {odds:2.18} and {odds:2.40} is enormous long-term. ThunderBet users typically start by checking the best price across the board, and then comparing it to exchange consensus probability. When the consensus says away is 42.2% (implied fair odds around {odds:2.37}), Providence at {odds:2.40} is at least in the conversation, while {odds:2.18} is not the same bet.

3) Total disagreement (and the “under edge” flag): ThunderCloud shows consensus total 167.0, but we’re also detecting an 8.5% edge on the under based on our internal pricing versus the exchange market. And again, model predicted total 157.8 is the headline. The practical takeaway: if you like the under, you want to be picky about the number (166.5 vs 167) and the price (don’t pay extra juice just to feel good about it). If you like the over, you should understand you’re aligning with the crowd number but fading the model—fine, as long as you’re doing it intentionally.

4) +EV flags: Our EV Finder is flagging Providence moneyline at Kalshi with an EV of +10.8% (and another Providence ML flag at +5.4%). There’s also a Creighton spread flag at Kalshi at +6.9%. That combination tells you something important: the best “value” isn’t always on one side of the game; it can be on different markets at different books when pricing is out of sync. That’s exactly why bettors who only look at one sportsbook end up betting into the worst of it.

5) Convergence signals are mild: Pinnacle++ Convergence is only 23/100 strength, with “away” showing up as a light signal but no full AI + Pinnacle alignment. Translation: we’re not seeing the kind of sharp-and-model pile-on that screams “market is behind.” This is more of a “shop for price, pick your spots” game than a “slam the screen” game.

If you want the full breakdown with live price comparisons, the easiest way is to open the matchup in our AI Betting Assistant and ask it to compare your book’s line to ThunderCloud consensus and our model. And if you’re trying to see every book and every derivative market, that’s where Subscribe to ThunderBet unlocks the full dashboard view.

Trap check: where the books are inviting action (and where ThunderBet is telling you to chill)

You’ll see a lot of bettors gravitate to the over because Providence games look like track meets on the stat sheet. Books know that. ThunderBet’s Trap Detector flagged a low-level split on Over 167.0 (score 43/100, action: Pass), and also low-level splits on Providence +3.0 and Under 167.0 (both “Pass” grades). That’s not an alarm bell, but it is a reminder: when you’re not getting a clean sharp/soft divergence, you don’t need to force it.

In other words, if you came in looking for a simple “sharp side,” this isn’t giving it to you. The market is relatively efficient on the main numbers, and the best edges are showing up as book-specific pricing errors (the stuff the EV Finder catches) rather than a giant mis-set spread across the whole market.

Also keep an eye on the difference between -2.5 and -3.5. In college hoops, key numbers matter less than the NBA, but 3 is still 3. If you like Providence, +3.5 at {odds:1.88} (BetRivers) is a very different bet than +2.5 at {odds:1.91}. If you like Creighton, -2.5 at {odds:1.83} (FanDuel) is a different conversation than laying -3.5 at {odds:1.91}. Shopping isn’t optional here—it’s the whole edge.

Key factors to watch before you bet (and what could flip the script)

• Creighton’s response to the DePaul sweep: Teams can come out angry after an embarrassment, and that can show up as pace control and defensive intensity early. If Creighton dictates the first 8–10 minutes, live-betting opportunities can look very different than pregame.
• Providence guard creation: Edwards being healthy changes their ceiling. If he’s getting downhill and Sellers is spacing/finishing, Providence can turn a short spread into a possession game late.
• Rotation depth: McAndrew being out isn’t just a name on an injury report—it affects foul trouble tolerance and late-game legs. Watch how Creighton manages minutes if Providence pushes tempo.
• Total math vs “memory”: The market is hanging 166.5–167 largely consistent with the first meeting and Providence’s season profile. Our model is way lower (157.8). If you see early possessions that are long, half-court heavy, and shot quality is contested, that under edge becomes more relevant in-game.
• Public bias on home court: Big East home court gets priced aggressively, especially in late-season spots where “must-win” narratives get loud. That doesn’t mean home can’t win—it just means you should be careful paying a premium for the story.

If you’re serious about getting this right, don’t just bet the opener you see. Use the EV Finder to locate the best price, then cross-check whether the move you’re seeing is real money or just book shading with the Odds Drop Detector. And if you want the full context—exchange consensus, model deltas, and live alerts—Subscribe to ThunderBet is how you unlock the full picture instead of guessing.

As always, bet within your means and treat every wager as a risk, not a certainty.