Derby County vs Hull City Odds, Picks & Predictions — Tuesday, February 24, 2026

A classic “bounce-back” spot… until you look closer

This is the kind of Championship match that sportsbooks love hanging a clean home price on and letting the public do the rest. Hull City at home on a Tuesday night, coming off a messy run, facing a Derby County side that’s been hot-and-cold—on paper it screams “Tigers get right.” And that’s exactly why it’s interesting.

Because when you zoom in, Hull’s slump isn’t just bad luck. They’ve been leaking points in winnable spots, they’ve struggled to put teams away, and the recent sequence (L-D-L-D-W) masks how uncomfortable they’ve looked for long stretches. Meanwhile Derby’s form (L-W-L-W-D) is volatile, but it’s a volatility with upside—especially when they’re allowed to play a more controlled, disciplined game.

From a betting perspective, this matchup lives in that uncomfortable middle: the exchange market leans home, the AI read leans away, and the sharp-vs-soft pricing tells you there are a couple of landmines. If you’re searching “Derby County vs Hull City odds” or “Hull City Derby County spread,” this is the night where the number matters more than the badge.

Matchup breakdown: ELO says tight, styles say “who blinks first”

Start with the baseline: Hull’s ELO sits at 1537 vs Derby at 1516. That’s close enough that you should expect the price to be driven by venue, availability, and market sentiment more than any “true gap” between the teams. Hull’s season-level scoring profile is also pretty clean—about 1.3 scored and 0.8 allowed per match on average—which usually points to a team that can manage games. Derby’s numbers are a little looser (1.5 scored, 1.1 allowed), which fits what you’ve seen: higher ceiling, but more ways to get dragged into chaos.

The way these two have been trending matters more than the raw averages though. Hull’s last 10 is 4W-6L and they’ve been stuck in a nasty points rhythm—drop points, “stabilize” with a draw, drop points again. Derby’s last 10 is 5W-5L, which sounds similar, but the wins have included a couple of statement-type performances (that 5-0 away win at Bristol City jumps off the page), and the losses haven’t always been the same kind of structural collapse.

Here’s the tactical betting angle: Hull want to look like a controlled side, but when they’re missing creativity and ball progression (more on availability below), they can become predictable—especially at home where they’re expected to dictate. Derby, when they’re set up to be compact and selective, can turn “home initiative” into transition chances. That’s how underdogs steal points in this league: let the home side have the ball, then punish the first sloppy sequence.

Head-to-head doesn’t always matter, but it can tell you about matchup fit. Derby being unbeaten in their last six against Hull (5W, 1D) is at least a clue that Derby have historically found answers here—whether that’s pressing triggers, set-piece edges, or just comfort against Hull’s patterns. It doesn’t mean it repeats, but it does mean you shouldn’t treat Hull as some automatic home bully in this specific pairing.

Derby County vs Hull City odds: what the market is pricing (and what it’s not)

Let’s talk numbers, because this is where “picks predictions” content usually gets lazy—and where you can actually get an edge by reading the board.

In the 1X2 market, Hull is priced as the favorite across books, but not a runaway one. DraftKings has Hull at {odds:2.40} with Derby {odds:3.00} and the draw {odds:3.35}. FanDuel is similar with Hull {odds:2.35}, Derby {odds:3.00}, draw {odds:3.20}. Pinnacle sits around Hull {odds:2.42}, Derby {odds:3.04}, draw {odds:3.26}. BetRivers is the outlier on the home side, offering Hull {odds:2.23} with Derby {odds:3.15} and draw {odds:3.30}—that’s a meaningful difference in a tight Championship 1X2.

On the Asian handicap, you’re basically looking at a “quarter-ball” home lean: Hull -0.25 is {odds:2.09} at Pinnacle and {odds:2.08} at Bovada, with Derby +0.25 at {odds:1.80} (Pinnacle) and {odds:1.78} (Bovada). That’s the market saying: Hull is slightly more likely to win than Derby, but the draw is very live.

Totals are sitting around the 2.25–2.5 range depending on shop. Pinnacle’s +2.25 is priced {odds:1.87}, Bovada’s +2.25 is {odds:1.85}. BetRivers lists +2.5 at {odds:1.93}, while BetMGM has +2.5 at {odds:1.69}. That spread in pricing is a reminder that totals liquidity varies—some books shade hard to one side because they don’t want to hold the sharper number.

And importantly: there’s been no major movement flagged. The Odds Drop Detector hasn’t picked up a significant steam pattern here, which tells you this isn’t one of those matches where the market is screaming “injury news hit” or “syndicate position.” It’s more of a slow-burn efficiency game—shop for the best price, and be careful about which side is a trap.

Sharp signals vs soft signals: where the traps are hiding

This is where ThunderBet’s read gets fun, because the market is giving you mixed messages.

The exchange consensus (ThunderCloud) leans home as the most likely moneyline winner, but with low confidence—home win probability around 55.5% vs 44.5% away. The consensus spread is basically Hull -0.2, and the consensus total sits at 2.25 with a lean over. That’s a pretty standard “slight home, modest scoring” profile for a Championship midweek fixture.

But our internal model projection has the total higher (2.6), and the predicted spread closer to pick’em (+0.0). That gap—exchange leaning home, model leaning neutral—is exactly the sort of divergence that creates value pockets in derivative markets (Asian handicap, draw-no-bet, or totals alt lines) rather than in the clean 1X2 headline.

The Trap Detector also flagged a few low-grade divergences worth respecting:

• Under 2.25 shows a sharp-vs-soft price divergence with a “fade” recommendation. Translation: some softer books are overcharging you for the under relative to sharper pricing. In a league where one early goal can flip the whole game state, paying tax on a low total is not where you want to be.
• Derby +0.2 pops as a “BET” divergence (again, low strength, but directionally notable). That’s the market hinting that the away protection is being priced differently by sharper vs softer shops.
• Hull -0.2 shows as “fade,” which lines up with the idea that the home lean might be a little too comfortable at certain books.

Now layer in the Pinnacle++ convergence read: signal strength is only 23/100, and there’s no clean “AI + Pinnacle aligned” tag on a specific market. That’s important. When convergence is weak, you’re not looking at a high-conviction steam situation—you’re looking at a pricing situation. It’s not “follow the move,” it’s “beat the number.” If you want the full convergence dashboard and the book-by-book deltas, that’s the kind of thing you unlock when you Subscribe to ThunderBet.

Value angles: how to actually use the +EV edges (without guessing)

If you’re trying to bet this match responsibly, the best approach is to stop thinking in terms of “who wins” and start thinking in terms of “where is the market inefficient.” That’s what our tools are built for.

Right now, the EV Finder is flagging a few small-but-real edges:

• Derby County spread at Matchbook with an estimated EV of +2.3%
• Derby County 1X2 at LeoVegas (SE) with an estimated EV of +1.9%
• Hull City spread at Matchbook with an estimated EV of +1.9%

Read that carefully: both sides can show +EV depending on the exact market and the exact book. That’s not a contradiction—it’s how fragmented football pricing is, especially in the Championship. One shop might be slow to update the quarter-ball, another might shade the 1X2, and exchanges can sit in a slightly different equilibrium than recreational books.

So how do you use it?

If you like Derby conceptually (and there are reasons to, given Hull’s current issues), the cleaner way is often via the Asian handicap protection (+0.25 style lines) rather than taking a pure 1X2 away price and sweating the draw. When the market is telling you “draw is live,” buying that draw insurance can be the difference between a good bet and a frustrating push-loss scenario.

If you like Hull, you want to be extra picky about where you pay for it. Hull {odds:2.23} at BetRivers is a very different bet than Hull {odds:2.42} at Pinnacle. That gap is the entire game. If you’re paying the worst of the number because you’re betting late and not shopping, you’re donating margin.

On totals, the interesting tension is this: exchange consensus leans over at 2.25, and the model total (2.6) is higher than the market midpoint. At the same time, the Trap Detector is telling you the under is being overtaxed at certain soft books. That combination usually pushes you toward either (a) being patient for a better over price, or (b) using alt totals/quarter lines to avoid paying the premium. It’s less about “this will be high scoring” and more about “what am I paying for a very fragile number?”

If you want to sanity-check your own read—like whether Derby’s away volatility is real or just opponent-driven—ask the AI Betting Assistant to break down the matchup by game state (how each team performs when leading, trailing, level). That’s where these totals and quarter-ball spreads often get decided.

Key factors to watch before you bet (and why the public might get it wrong)

1) Hull’s availability situation
The biggest non-price factor here is Hull’s reported availability crunch—potentially up to seven key players missing, including creative pieces. Even if you don’t know the exact XI yet, you know what it does to the handicap market: if Hull can’t progress the ball cleanly, they’re forced into lower-quality chances and more set-piece reliance. That makes them less reliable as a favorite and increases the probability of a draw-ish game script.

2) Derby’s “ceiling games” on the road
Derby’s 5-0 away win at Bristol City is the kind of result that tells you they can punish a team that loses structure. The question isn’t “can they do it again,” it’s “does Hull’s current form and personnel allow them to keep structure for 90 minutes?” If the answer is no, that’s when away spreads start to look attractive.

3) The exchange vs sportsbook split
Exchanges leaning home with low confidence while the model leans closer to pick’em is a classic “don’t overpay for the favorite” signal. It doesn’t mean Hull can’t win; it means the price is doing more work than the performance is.

4) Public bias in the bounce-back narrative
Public bias is only moderate toward the home side (4/10), but it’s the type of bias that matters: bettors love the idea of a home team “responding” after a bad run. Books know that. If you’re going to back Hull, do it because you found the best number and you’re comfortable with the matchup, not because the storyline feels right.

5) Timing and shopping
With no big line move yet, your edge is shopping and execution. This is exactly the kind of match where checking the EV Finder an hour before kickoff can matter more than reading ten previews. And if you want the full board—82+ sportsbooks, sharper baselines, and live deltas—this is one of those slates where it’s worth it to Subscribe to ThunderBet and see the whole screen instead of one book’s opinion.

As always, bet within your means and treat every wager like a decision, not a destiny.